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the future of information society operating system (isos)

I believe we are in the midst of a competition between two competing forces that will shape the operating system of the future information society. This carries significant implications, as the structure of the ISOS affects how we thrive in vast groups (surpassing even nation-states, currently the largest units of human collaboration). It also influences wealth distribution, individual opportunities for success, and society’s motivation to progress.

To understand this deeper, we need to break down the four primary components of the information society operating system. Each component can be centralized (driven by a for-profit company or government) or decentralized (anchored in a permissionless protocol, with or without a governing token).

The four pillars of information system society OS:

  1. Identity - what is the atomic internet source of identity?
    • Centralized: social media account (X/ Google / Meta)
    • Decentralized: Public blockchain address (Ethereum / EVM)
  2. Messaging rails - how do I send general information to other identities?
    • Centralized: whatsapp, X messaging, Meta
    • Decentralized: XMTP
  3. Payment rails - how do I send money to other identities?
    • Centralized: Fintech (Paypal, Bank fintechs)
    • Decentralized: Public blockchain (Ethereum)
  4. Social media - where is the public square in which you can see and respond to public activity of identities?

You can see that a lot of the components are coupled together - for instance, Ethereum address can be a unit of identity, but also a way to transfer money.

These components can be decoupled too. For example, you can authenticate on X using your Google identity. This means X provides the public square function but lacks the identity function.

The evolution of these pillars has varied depending on the entity - Meta started with identity and social networks, and then tried moving into money rails with Libra which was failed by regulation.

Now X is trying to rule everything, trying to be the hub of identity and finance to the West, like WeChat to the East. If X succeeds in Elon Musk’s ambitious plan, it will control your identity (your X account), your ability to message other identities (via messaging), send money to other identities1, and become the public square of identities. Extremely centralized, led by Elon Musk.

X started from social media and is moving towards money and messaging.

The decentralized route was different- Blockchains like Ethereum started from money and money rails, then moved to identity ENS (your account being your identity), and now move to identity messaging with XMTP and social networks like Farcaster and Lens Protocol.

Decentralized technology is much harder to scale than centralized, and the efforts of the whole crypto industry have been around scaling these services and defining what is sufficient decentralization for them.

Conversely, decentralized technology is more resilient, reflecting Linus’s Law: “with enough eyeballs, all bugs are shallow.”

Challenges for centralized tech to succeed:

  • Eroding trust in centralized institutions in the 21st century
  • Centralized decisions might be detrimental without checks and balances and error correction mechanisms
  • Government regulation could stifle development (especially if the government wishes to undertake the development itself)

Challenges for decentralized tech to succeed:

  • Difficulty in scaling the technology
  • Second-mover disadvantage, lagging 10-20 years behind in user adoption

The next decade will likely decide the dominant stack: a centralized system guided by a single entity or a decentralized approach powered by countless open-source developers globally.

  1. Even if X decides to pick crypto rails as a payment solution, it still controls the users, hence can always switch the ‘back-end’ to centralized, self-controlled, financial rails. ↩